Playing Live at Vancouver City Hall, (Not So) Groovy Gregor Robertson and the Replacements!
You read it here, first, a while back and it caused the Mayor’s people significant indigestion.
He might not be running for Mayor in 2011.
Here’s the calculus:
1) The Mayor has clearly underperformed. Inside polling shows a flatline on his popularity, BUT his negatives were high enough even through the Olympics that the manipulated poll by a friend of the Mayor’s even showed pockets of concern. So….out came the black-rimmed spectacles (which I’m told he doesn’t really need to wear away from reading material) and then the trip to Harry Rosen for new duds to get him out of Hollyhock khaki (favored, of course, by the elite salon socialist classes). Even the speaking notes get tweaked before he goes out of the office, several times, often getting dumbed down to, um, well, you know, make it easier for Mayor Moonbeam. And the attack against ANYONE not on board with the Vision Vancouver PR spin of blogosphere whores and compliant media members (of which there are now, mainly, only three) began in earnest late last year–an unprecedentedly early start to the campaign of November 2011.
Translation: They’re nervous. And now that it’s evident that they have badly miscalculated on the extremist bike, chicken coop, viaduct-destroying donor-favouring agenda, they are weighing any number of options. If Joel Solomon/Carol Newell/Mike Magee and Bob Penner lose the next election, Vision is finished. There are three Vision councillors, who are already looking for other things to do than run again. Notwithstanding the brazen lies and painted-on smiles, the experiment isn’t working and everyone knows it. Even the media…and that’s a huge problem for them. The Province fully gets it. The Sun has Jeff Lee. The Courier, despite Garr, have Howell, Thomas and Hasiuk. The Straight will always have Charlie Smith bumping for COPE, since Vision isn’t left enough, Global are onto Vision, as are CBC, the entire NW newsroom hates them with a passion. 24 Hours has Bob Mackin. On the internet there’s this blog and the boys at citycaucus.com.
Oh, but Vision has Linda Solomon, sister of Joel Solomon and dope legalization heroine, who routinely runs pro-dope articles in her ‘Vancouver Observer’. (More like, ‘Vancouver Occupation’!)
Basically, Vision is cornered–but stuck too. They cannot recant on their socialist agenda, and they can’t go any harder. They will be forced to stay the course into sure losses in 2011. The question is: How many casualties and who? Another six months like the last six and the tide will become a tsunami against them. Just watch.
2) Two Vision hierarchs are convinced they’d be better off without Gregor in the fall of 2011–problem is one likes Geoff Meggs the other likes Raymond Louie. The impetus to keeping the powder dry for now, is that the NPA are so beneath operating status that only a high-profile stable of savior-like candidates can win them a majority of seats on council and the Mayor’s chair. Tung Chan, for as much as I love the man, can’t do it. If you think Vision are vicious now, railing against newspapers that criticize them or sending people out to attack Mike Klassen or threatening me with frivolous lawsuits, they’ll be absolutely drooling off their fangs by next year.
3) I consistently hear from Liberal sources in Ottawa that Iffy’s people have been in discussions with one of Gregor’s prominent people about him possibly replacing Hedy Fried in Vancouver Centre. As much as it’s a Liberal stronghold, Hedy is despised by the Ignatieff people and considered (quite correctly) a singificant lightweight. The problem with this possible jump for His Moonbeaminess, is that Larry Campbell is still a Liberal Senator. Never mind the public statements, Campbell, to his credit, has had a significant falling out with Vision. He HATES the Hollyhock Solomon-Newell crowd with a passion and doesn’t trust them. He is also no longer a fan of one Jim Green, the Darth Vader of the extremists and radicals that have taken over the city. This not only creates a problem for the Mayor in jumping to the Grits, but it also presents a problem from Geoff Meggs going off and running for Mayor. Larry is privately upset at Meggs for hoovering the Hollyhock mafia. No, you say? Not so fast. Meggs just recently returned from a nice extended stay at Hollyhock on Cortes Island. So he’s prepared to drink the bathwater, even if he goes out into the parking lot to throw it up in front of his union puppet-masters. Campbell, again to his credit, hates Meggs’ dishonesty. And, no surprise, ‘Win-At-Any-Cost’ Chief of Staff Mike Magee favors Meggs over Louie, so that won’t help the currently woven split when it does come apart.
4) Raymond Louie is not terribly happy (then again, when does he ever look it?). He is desperately quiet this term, and when he has spoken up, he’s planted his foot firmly in his mouth. His complaint? Little or no support from the Hollyhock mafia, and his gurgling upset at Meggs for even thinking of being heir apparent infront of Louie, is leaking out beyond his inner circle of Kingsway confidantes.
5) Notice the silence from the Mayor? Well, there’s a reason for that. He’s escaped to Cortes Island for the month of August. While Hornby Street businesses are his party’s latest contracts killings, he’ll be playing his tuba (tonight!) to raise money for a piano for the Cortes community. Yup, while Rome burns…
“Meggs just recently returned from a nice extended stay at Hollyhock on Cortes Island. So he’s prepared to drink the bathwater, even if he goes out into the parking lot to throw it up in front of his union puppet-masters. “.
See, that’s why I love you, man. Other bloggers dream of writing a piece like this.
The sad reality is that, so far, social change has turned out to be social pocket change. Vision has total control of Council and a hand-picked, union-approved Senior Management Team. When do they let that side of the mask slip?
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Love you, man…
Jeezus…
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The countdown clock is ticking…
Who goes first? Gregor or Gordo???
Someone, please invent a new lottery game!
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Gordo.
Unless……
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Greggy’s teeth are too big to fail.
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On the one hand, VV are not the socialist, left-wing loonies of COPE – anti-capitalist, anti-Wal Mart, focusing council debates on outer space weaponization by the U.S., etc., etc. In that context, I would categorize VV as moderate, centre-left liberals, for the most part. And most people can live with political moderates.
That said, Gregor comes across as stiff and plastic – sort of a “deer in the headlights” look when he appears on camera. And that’s when he ever appears on camera. I can’t ever recall a Vancouver mayor that has stayed away from the media such as Gregor. Why? Phillip Owen, Larry Campbell, and even Sam Sullivan never saw a mike that they didn’t like.
The only guy who seems to speak for city hall (and also seems to hog the limelight) is Meggs – who finished in the last and 10th slot on council.
The current council seems to be branding itself in terms of downtown bike lanes, chicken coops, chicken shelters, city hall vegetable gardens, city hall beehives, and imposition of its agenda by government fiat. And the cumulative effect of these matters is having an impact upon the general public both in terms of derision and backlash.
For some reason, something does not seem right at city hall.
As an aside, the current downtown “bike-lane” debates and the way VV is implementing same – decisions already made – sugar-coated with “public consultation” – has an eerie semblance to Mayor Tom “Terrific” Campbell’s imposition of his freeway plans during the late 60′s.
Finally, I can’t see Gregor bailing on the mayor’s chair. He’s VV’s biggest asset – like it or not. If VV is to undergo a putsch akin to the Owen and Sullivan fiascos, then they are certainly done like dinner.
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Then why all the backroom enquiries? IF there’s no chance of him going, why the exploratory efforts?
But I agree that if they switch they’re done, but not for the reasons you state. If Gregor goes, they’re divided badly already, the fissures will just be obvious. Particularly if Meggs wins a leadership against Louie, it’s over. They’ll lose every seat except maybe Louie’s. Pity too. Louie has the absolutely nicest political spouse I’ve ever met. She’s a terrific person. Which really makes me wonder why he can’t crack a smile and hold it.
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I’m still taken aback that there are any question marks about Gregor within VV internally. Gregor was VV’s poster boy – their Obama with the long coattails who led them to a landslide victory in ’08.
BTW, back in ’08, there was an agreement between VV, COPE, and the Greens to run a so-called ‘joint slate’ to prevent council/school board/parks board vote-splitting. Will that continue in 2011?
An article in yesterday’s Georgia Straight suggests that the Greens want to run more candidates in 2011.
Will COPE run more candidates in 2011? I doubt that they are happy with the developer’s bank-rolling VV.
Will VV ignore COPE as inconsequential and run a full council slate in 2011 as well as more candidates for School Board and Parks Board?
These scenarios will further split the vote and could also change the potential council make-up in favour of the NPA.
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I will happily answer those questions in a follow-up post.
And will leave you with one thought…
Barack Hussein Obama’s current approval rating is at 41%–Dubya wasn’t at this level until well into his second term…..but White House twit Robert Gibbs claims the President’s numbers are “buoyant.”
Sound familiar…meanwhile Hillary schemes…
Meanwhile Meggs…
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Just to add to the jubilation…
Pollsters are finding BOTH the Dems and GOP are in the soup, with the GOP slightly less popular. Crazy overall approval numbers: Dems 33%, GOP 31%…
The populace is fed up with it all.
Does this strike a chord? Seem familiar?? Third party territory???
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Um. yup…
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They all need to go. The mayor, the lack of Vision Vision and the under performer NPA Susan. Time for some independents with NO political ties and no funding agents pulling the strings. The tax payers need to take back the city and have an open government that is ready and willing to listen to their needs.
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Well said Alex.
But, don’t underestimate the NPA. In my opinion there is going to be a fresh field of well qualified candidates keen to take Vision on in 2011. The groundwork is being laid.
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Just curious – have they (Vision) solved the homeless issue, yet?
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No my dear, they haven’t. But are you referring to street homelessness? LOL! That’s the qualifier Mayor Moonbeam added…
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I am still trying to reconcile the Juice Boy NDP MLA who voiced apparent concern, shock and outrage for the Cambie St. business community during the Canada Line construction versus the Juice Boy Mayor who now could care less about any business he destroys while supporting the cycling jihad.
Is it because mass transit projects such as the Canada Line is somehow less politically worthy in the world of his royal juiciness and it is OK to destroy the world in the name of cycling lanes instead ? I don’t get it.
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Actually, it sounds like you quite get it. From where I’m sitting you understand it better than most!
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Great article again Alex. Good to hear a voice of reason persists in this crazy world of BC politics.
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Thx Scotty. Too kind. Good to hear from you.
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