UPDATED: It’s Like I Knew Watts Up Or that I Taylored My Comments Accordingly…
Sorry I couldn’t resist.
In a new poll today done by Angus Reid exclusively for the Vancouver Sun, the points I made for you yesterday regarding the provincial landscape prove themselves out.
If Gordon Campbell left now and was replaced by either Dianne Watts or Carole Taylor, the Liberals, or a new vehicle by another name, would immediately be in striking distance of the NDP.
The problem, as I have pointed out to many BC Liberal caucus members over the last two years, is that the longer Gordon Campbell stays, the worse (read: deeper in the drink) the party dips. They don’t get it but perhaps this poll will stir some of them.
It’s clear: Gordon Campbell MUST announce that he is leaving as soon as possible, As I have repeated many times, particularly since January of this year, if Mr. Campbell stays beyond this fall, it will make it almost impossible to turn around and then the NDP can leave Carole James intact, sailing to victory.
Pity that BC Liberal MLAs are so gutless.
A greater pity that Gordon Campbell is such a stubborn fool. He has delivered the NDP to your door.
You can see the fresh polling numbers, here.
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Interesting….the BC Conservatives are stalled at 6% according to the same poll from today. This speaks volumes: After months of having good guy Chris Delaney in the press (rightly) battling against the HST, and after months of having the BC Conservative party bannered in umpteen newscasts, the net result is an anemic 6%!!!
None of the BC Liberal bleed off is going to the Conservatives because the BC Conservative party is hijacked by social conservative extremists like Randy White, who does great work in drug awareness in Canada, but then takes bizarre extremist positions on the far right–well out of the norm in B.C.
Like the cow that gives good milk and kicks the bucket over…except that guys like White stomp on the bucket and tear down the barn door on their way out, too.
It’s like I wrote for you the other day, here.
Pity.
One further note. The ARS detailed results show that Carole James only has a 28% approval rating compared to Campbell’s 14% approval rating. And James has a negative momentum score of -6.
Those James numbers are pretty much in the cellar as well. Alot of soft vote parking going on right now and much has to do with the strong anti-Campbell undercurrent also rubbing off upon the Liberal brand.
I suggest that the same phenomena existed leading into and during 1986 when Bill Bennett was also loathed by the public and that also tarnished the Socred brand. Bennett announces his retirement in June/July, 1986 and the whole political dynamic then changes overnight. History does tend to repeat itself.
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Precisely. James is NOT that well regarded, and for good reason. Look at her performance in the last election–one she should have easily won.
If either of Taylor or Watts make a move, it’s over for the NDP. It will take some time, but there are still a few years left on the clock. And then it will be interesting to see how the NDP react to being behind and having to perhaps switch leaders. I’m told that the Carole James team is so stubborn and dig in that any move to replace her will collapse a good portion of their funding and infrastructure.
You read it here first…
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Hopefully the NDP will be stupid enough to replace James with Gregor. He will probably run under a banner proposing a bike lane down the Coquihalla.
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That’s hilarious! However….
As you saw when Gregor raised the issue of tankers in the harbour, he got HAMMERED by who? Derek Corrigan. Someone who is a long-time NDPer (and touted as a potential Carole James replacement) and HATES Robertson with a passion. Gregor is despised also by the front bench of the current NDP. They tolerate him, that’s it. Otherwise, if he became the leader, the party would split. The NDP are VERY leery of Joel Solomon and Carol Newell. And for good reason. Through their puppet Mayor Moonbeam, they have turned Vancouver into a 60s commune.
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Even Gregor is turning out to be tooo far-left for the the NDP and has absolutely no political future unless Stephane Dion rises from the dead (or if Bob “economy-butcher” Rae somehow takes the helm) and recruits him for the Federal Liberales.
Now Meggs is another story entirely. He IS a die-hard NDPer and is dangerous as well. He may be one of the most ruthless civic politicians any city has seen in a while.
Gregor is a puppet, a mere figure-head, the good looking baby kisser for the cameras. Sure he got his bike lanes, gardens and beehives, but that’s all window dressing for what is really going on behind the scenes, all driven by Meggs and the NDP in this town.
Just note the steps being taken to plump up the next contract for CUPE. Meggs has ensured the city will get royally f–ked in the next bargaining session.
With Vancouver heading towards yet another major shortfall, while the NDP are pulling the strings, if Campbell leaves in 2010, there is a chance the right leader can pull off a win in 2013.
Further, if Vision and the NDP win the 2011 civic election, people will only look to the disaster in the province’s largest city for an example of what will come of the province with the NDP in power. A new leader will/should pounce on this type of parallel.
If the NDP had some brains they would let Vision crumble to dust, distancing themselves as much as possible from the train wreck at 12th/Cambie. As it stands right now, they’re laying low hoping the Liberals continue imploding on themselves……..while forgetting the blood they’re getting on their hands running Vancouver.
The worst thing the NDP could do to their hopes to regain power, is to help elect another Vision mayor and council in Vancouver before they grab the big chair in Victoria. But you just know they can’t help themselves.
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It would be hard fro the NDP not to help Vision get elected in 2011, since so many of their Vancouver supporters overlap. And almost all Vision candidates are either supporters or members of the NDP.
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Its a tough situation. This province has been driven into sh1t by the neocons and even if we get an NDP government the msm will suddenly notice that our province is in deep sh1t and blame the NDP.
Alternatively we elect another bunch of neocons eager to sell off our province to the lowest bidders…
Or maybe there’s some slim chance that we actually smarten up.
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I’m not sure what neo-cons you’re talking about. That makes no sense. Gordon Campbell is NOt a conservative and neither are his chief lieutenants, Mike DeJong and Colin Hansen.
And MOST of the people involved lobbying efforts, ‘Rape of River’ etc, are federal Liberals.
Wanna try again?
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I’d like to learn what you think and maybe change my thinking.
My understanding of a neocon government is one that services their relations (family, friends, peers) before their constituents and even at the expense of their constituents.
A neocon government slashes corporate taxation, social infrastructure, unions and basically caters to the elite.
I would call Gordon Campbell’s B.C. Liberals a neocon government: We have corporations refusing to pay taxes, we have private medical being implemented, our river are being sold off willie nilly, there is too much to list here.
Maybe there’s a better descriptor… but that’s my thinking.
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Sure. Gordon Campbell is a CLASSIC neo-liberal. not a neo-con. The base of it is elementary conservatism but the hypocritical execution is entirely liberal (money no object we’ll throw it around). Campbell cries out for the environment but allows long-time insiders and campaign workers, donors and strategists to rape our rivers to produce power that we don’t even need. The fact that it’s being done by pals isn’t the issue here. It’s the hypocrisy, the hurtful hypocrisy of crying out for one thing and doing the exact opposite. Neo-cons are also steeped in religion. Unless you consider either money or the native aboriginal causes for more money religions, then Gordon Campbell believes in nothing else more than that. Corporate taxation hasn’t been “slashed”. It’s been brought to reasonable levels particularly for small business. It’s the big breaks he OVER-provided industry that are the problem. And if you care to remember: the unions have been treated pretty well under Campbell (except for the HEU and paramedics). All the others have been fairly quiet.
Private medical isn’t being implemented. It’s sign of the times. I am a patient at a private medical clinic. I do not use MSP except once a year when I go in for a physical. I can afford the private fee, and my health is important to me. So I pay. My problem with private clinics is that the doctors should be paid ONLY by private funds, and NOT by MSP.
Please name the corporations that are refusing to pay. I’d happily do that story.
Be well.
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Well said, thanks for the reply. I’m relatively new to trying to understand BC politics.
“the doctors should be paid ONLY by private funds, and NOT by MSP. ”
-that makes sense.
this was on of the situations I was thinking of:
“B.C. pulp mills refusing to pay taxes”
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2009/07/09/bc-pulp-mills-taxes-revolt-celgar-catalyst.html
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If you look at how things have gone for pulp mills…you have to wonder whether this is a real sign of revolt or a cash flow issue. I’m certainly not excusing them, but…
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I think you are wrong about Campbell’s treatment of unions and workers in BC in general. The Employment Standards were gutted by the BC Liberal Party in areas such as an employer being able to call in an employee for only 2 hours work, the implementation of the training wage and freezing the minimum wage just to name a few. About the only thing he didn’t bring in to placate his buddies such as Jock Finlayson is the right for companies to bring in replacement workers in the event of a strike.
And as much as Gordon Campbell is being held responsible for such things as the HST, carbon tax, the HEU debacle etc., his cohorts such as his cabinet and backbenchers are just as responsible for going with the flow. Yes, they should be loyal to the party they represent, but when a political party has a majority, they also hold the responsibility of doing what is right for the province as a whole. When they see that the one in charge is going off the rails, it is their duty to put a stop to it. In this respect, they have failed miserably.
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The latter part of your comment I can agree with generally. But as per the first part: Are you suggesting labour unrest? Because it’s been deafeningly quiet during almost all of Campbell’s term. The unions are hardly upset.
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The entire right in political terms is in trouble provincially its simple to see what NDP brass is doing keep James in the shadows and let Campbell destroy himself and the BC Liberals and it is working what would she do that MSM wouldnt spin back at her and her party knows this , agreed the NDP needs a bit better leadership but as said they would be in a fight with the paid version of PAB=the MSM hard to win that one.
i do think NDP leadership change will happen but quietly and without a blood battle so they can make a clean move to replace the Liberals and i am sure now it wouldnt matter who runs the NDP will win now and they know this, building some confidence from voters once in will be the trick.
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I’m not so sure. The James people are VERY sensitive about the not-so-quiet push, trust me. And the ones pushing are hardly known for being gentle.
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If James hangs on i think it would be one term max and NDP would be replaced by a solid middle road party if it can convince voters no Campbell like garbage will be tolerated , im not looking forward to the price we are all going to pay for this last govt and its poor policy work or lack there of they simply sold us out and we need to move away from them no matter what is next.
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I am heavily leaning in the direction of your hypothesis. However, a new vehicle with NEW policies that will clean up govt will be met with much approval, provided the leader is well-known and will take a MUCH different road than Gordon.
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I am not sure if Corrigan would succeed outside of Burnaby. He is too old school NDP. The only reason he gets elected in Burnaby is that his party has figured out how to get elected in an election with low turnout (not the only left wing civic government to master this) which is par for the course for civic elections.
Would be great to see civic and provincial elections held on the same day as it would improve turnout and probably save a ton of money.
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You’re quite right, although…Corrigan has a very big following with the NDP front bench in Victoria. He’s not to be underestimated.
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Gordon just announced on CTV that he’ll be running again.
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He’s an idiot. What more can be said? He’s told key caucus members the exact opposite.
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Carole James is probably the most likeable, (well least despised) of any NDP leader I have ever seen, not that I would ever vote NDP. Her problem, as I see it, is that she is not nearly far enough to the left, and tends not to whine. The only good thing about Derek Corrigan moving to Victoria is that we would not have him here in Burnaby anymore.
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You said my friend, you said it.
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“Hopefully the NDP will be stupid enough to replace James with Gregor. He will probably run under a banner proposing a bike lane down the Coquihalla.”
Zing! Great shot.
Has everyone heard Rock 101′s bit where Robertson’s building a bike lane right through their studios?
As Machiavelli (who gets a bad rap imo, by the way) so rightly pointed out: they can love you, they can hate you, they can fear you, but if they start laffing, pack your bags.
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It’s very funny stuff. And you know what? It’s precisely what will hurt Robertson. The demographic that listens to CFMI are precisely the people he needs back at the polls in 2011.
They all drive cars…
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I think that too many people put too much creedence in polls. This latest poll had 800 respondents, which is less than 10 people per riding. It’s just illogical to assume that anyone can get a true picture with such a small sample. For instance, the Green Party always seems to score a much higher percentage of market share between elections but when the pencil hits the ballot, they underachieve every time. I know that many people vote for the same party every election, but some of us still like to choose who we think will be the best representative for our riding. When I answer a poll, I always choose other, if it is an available option.
That being said, I can’t see Carole Taylor running for the leadership of the BC Liberal Party for a couple of reasons. Considering that she is older than Campbell, I think her age is a drawback, especially to younger voters. The other is that she came out against the HST a while back which would likely lose her backing from the business community, and she would inherit a great number of incumbent MLAs that are on record supporting the HST.
Dianne Watts may be coerced to take the plunge, but I think it would be ill advised. She’s got a good gig going for her now, and it seems to be hers to keep for as long as she wants it. Dealing with a handful of councillors is one thing, but trying to deal with the group of miscreants she would inherit may not be worth the aggravation.
I think it is time that we had a Premier that resides outside of the lower mainland. If memory serves me correct, the last Premier that resided from the hinterlands was Bill Bennett. That is too long a time in my books.
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I don’t disagree with your general analysis, but for the reasons I’ve given you before, Taylor and Watts have told top advisors that they would make the HST significantly less painful and bring in all sorts of exemptions. Frankly, if the PM wanted to boost his (again) sagging ratings, he should axe the tax in B.C. and give the province five years no interest to pay back the almost $2B. He could say that we clearly don’t want it and the petition effort by Messers Tieleman, Delaney and VanderZalm demonstrates this in spades.
But I agree. For such a small poll it’s making too many waves.
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If the recall fails who knows if the majority of BCer’s will even realize they are paying the HST in 2013?
This poll is a snapshot of the first moment in Gordon’s tenure that he and his party has really ever been on the rocks. I wouldn’t count him out until they’ve changed the name on his door.
From what I’ve read W.A.C. was the man.
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You are correct. And his son Bill was not to bad a Premier either.
As for Gordon, he’s looking for a way out believe me.
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From what I have been able to glean, BC is locked into the current formula for a specified length of time before the BC government can renegotiate the terms of the HST. They have already maxed out the exemptions they can offer, and I don’t think they can even change the provincial rate for a couple of years. With the debt Campbell & Co. have built up, I can’t see them dropping the rate, and with the increased deficit federally, I can’t see Ottawa endorsing more exemptions.
In my opinion, the recession is far from over, and both the federal and provincial governments will have their hands tied for many years to come. They are either going to have to raise taxes or cut expenditures. Economists, financial gurus and our governments can spin their message as much as they want, but until they get out of their ivory towers and mingle with the proletariate, they are just blowing smoke. The demands on the food banks are not increasing by the choice but rather by necessity. Part time or low paying jobs just don’t cut it for an ever increasing proportion of our society. Yet certain sectors such as our banks increase their profits each quarter, CEOs of major corporations get ever increasing bonuses.
The rich and connected get richer and the rest are doomed to make sure that this never changes. As I see it, nothing much has changed from the days of the serf other than the spin we are subjected to. At least in days of yore, the haves made it crystal clear that the have-nots would always remain there.
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Exemptions are still available. It’s all still in play. It’s not a matter of renegotiating anything. This was not a federal govt initiative. The BC Libs pursued it. The feds offered it to Carole Taylor, once, and she said ‘No’. The current govt could make life a whole lot easier for the people of this province. But that would require some foresight.
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I thought the $2+ Billion was being credited in 3 installments and that the last installment was not coming through until March 2011…..
The first was at the ‘agreement to the HST’, the second came through when the HST was implemented July 1 – and the last was to come through in 2011……
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Regardless. It could be managed. If the feds wanted to get into that.
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When the BCL debt is paid down and polls come up, as they will, at least to 35%, the preem will exit and the Party will honour him on his way out. That might not be until fall, 2011 (Alex I disagree the Party is dead if Gordon waits until then). Then we will see who comes out of the wood work…Brad Bennett perhaps, maybe a prominent business leader from Vancouver. I agree with Alex’s assessment of George Abbott and Mike DeJong. Coleman has decided he’s not going after it. That leaves Falcon on the inside, Carole and Dianne on the outside. Or what about a prominent federal Conservative, like Stockwell Day, or James Moore? The fun is just starting and sorry to spoil the fun for the dippers, but their chances in 2013 are going to fade considerably over the next 18 months.
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I don’t agree at all that if Gordon waits it’s all good. Look at your polling numbers. Yes, small size of 800, but the signs are all there. The longer Campbell waits the deeper in the dirt the party goes. Three months ago the same pollster was showing Dianne and Carole thumping the NDP. Now they’re marginally behind.
Wanna guess what’s happen if you wait another few months? Why don’t you and your colleagues get together and ask him to leave, rather than wait this out. As soon as the recall starts it will only get worse.
Think about what you’re doing.
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“The only good thing about Derek Corrigan moving to Victoria is that we would not have him here in Burnaby anymore.”
Amen to that, Brother.
“I think it is time that we had a Premier that resides outside of the lower mainland. If memory serves me correct, the last Premier that resided from the hinterlands was Bill Bennett. That is too long a time in my books.”
Then there was that fella had a hardware store in Kelowna way back when …
http://archives.cbc.ca/politics/provincial_territorial_politics/topics/1637-11303/
“Frankly, if the PM wanted to boost his (again) sagging ratings, he should … give the province five years no interest to pay back the almost $2B”
Frankly, since it was BC taxpayers’ money in the first place, I vote we tell Ottawa to go screw for it. What are they going to do, not take any more of our dough in future? Send in the troops?
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