Musings from my perch in Victoria…

Firstly, Dianne Watts is most certainly NOT out of the running for Premier.

For the drunken revelers on the NDP side (particularly one in Garden Bay) all celebrating the demise of the BC Liberals since the Surrey Mayor announced she is “out”, pay attention: Dianne Watts did NOT say in the now infamous, recent  Province interview that she was ‘completely out’ of running for the job of Premier. What she said, specifically, to the question of running for the top job is that she was planning on running for Mayor of Surrey again (and after a spectacular service as Mayor, this shouldn’t be a shock) was that she was “pretty much” out. To me, and anyone else that has interviewed her umpteen times, this is not ruling out a run for anything. That she is “pretty much” out is no different a position than before.

Here are quotes she’s given me and other media venues to questions about her running for Premier:

“I really don’t think so, I’m not thinking about it that much” (24 Hours)

“Is there a vacancy? And no one told me!” (CanWest/Global)

“I’m really happy being Mayor of Surrey” (Vancouver Sun)

“I’m flattered by the response (to the poll putting her heads above all other possible contenders)” (The Province)

“Maybe you should ask someone else first?” (CTV)

But it was the Province interview, so close to the caucus retreat in Harrison that was made a big deal of.

Wonders never cease. Watch Gordon Campbell resign (and he will) and ask her again. Betcha she’d be “pretty much” in. But we’ll let those keeping busy Molsons’ truck drivers in Garden Bay continue the Pyrrhic victory, for now…

Secondly, Carole Taylor isn’t out either, although I can tell you, there is a SIGNIFICANT group that is making overtures to her to run for Mayor of Vanocuver instead and rid us of the socialist radicals and extremists currently infesting Silly Hall. (Renewed interest in this comes on the heels of  Gregor Moonbeam’s recent, offensive comments comparing TEAM to Vision and this on the day Vancouver honoured former TEAM Mayor Art Phillips and gave him the key to the city. Mr. Phillips is said to have been marginally annoyed, but Ms. Taylor was not amused at all and found the political grandstanding by the Mayor totally offside–which it was–although former TEAM Alderman Marguerite Ford is said to have put him in his place).

So while waiting for Gord’s departure, DO NOT count out either of these women. Although, (unfortunately) you can count out Christy Clark. My informants in the Black Tower tell me that she has signed a brand new multi-year deal with CKNW and there is NO exit clause. Too bad. She’d make a good Mayor of Vancouver as well.

Now, for those of you who have been prodding me to find out why there was no revolt in Harrison during the exclusively reported here BC Liberal caucus retreat, I’m happy to report my findings.

On the Tuesday of the Harrison caucus retreat (and during the open session on the Wednesday), the Premier took aside key caucus members and told caucus as a group that he recognized what direction “matters have to go…I read the papers, I read Vaughn Palmer, I watch the news… I know what’s going on and what needs to happen.”

“It was pretty clear to us”, said one prominent caucus member to me recently, “that he’s on his way out, but it’s going to be a time of his choosing. And as you know, the sooner the better. If he waits until 2011, I honestly don’t think we’ll elect more than a couple of handfuls of MLAs. Of course that changes dramatically if Dianne or Carole come aboard”

Truer words were never spoken. But here’s the problem: (and, once again, you heard it here first) Stephen Harper. Why? How?

Let me explain…..

Gordon Campbell is still a relatively young man. He wants to work. So he’s looking for the Gary Doer deal, except that Gord wants a climate change position.

Unfortunately (for the Premier), there is a difference between what Mr. Campbell wants and what Mr. Harper will allow. The Prime Minster is an astute man and, like a majority of Canadians now, is non-plussed about climate change alarmism.

Though, as much as Mr. Campbell is hated here in B.C., his image in the rest of the country isn’t so bad, and to his credit, he has never side-sniped the PM, like frolicking charlatan Danny Williams (a MOST insufferable man). So, while the PM might not like Gord’s personal peccadiloes, he appreciates his fairness when dealing with the feds (and other than the HST, we’re MUCH better off as a province in federal matters since the departure of the insidious polemic of the NDP).

So you read it here first. Gordon Campbell is being considered for High Commissioner to India. Of course, every South Asian man of prominence considers themselves a shoo-in for the vacancy, but I can tell you from the digging I’ve been doing in Ottawa lately, this is the plan.

The big question is: When? Well, here’s my speculation: in the fall of 2010. It’s the best time, it’s still early enough and the damage won’t be as severe to the center-right cause in this province. And, frankly, the aforementioned spot has been vacant for a while and should be filled. Worst case scenario: he’s given an appointment in the spring of 2011 and it might not be the High Commissioners spot to India, but at the moment, he’s the leading candidate for the job.

Let’s pray…

As for the contenders, let me tell you that George Abbott (an exceedingly nice man) is still organizing (but it’s an exercise in futility–he can’t win) and so is Mike DeJong, who has a huge Indo-Canadian following from Abbotsford, but he has all the personality of sandpaper. He’s a street fighter. Street fighters rarely morph into leaders. Besides, both of them are part of the cabal that agreed to every single mindless initiative Gordomatic foisted on the people of this province. And Rich Coleman is now revealed to be a “good friend” of Patrick Kinsella’s (a good thing on a personal level but absolutely toxic if you’re a politician in B.C)

So that leaves us with our friend Kevin Falcon, newlywed and new Dad. But new man?

Not a chance. While I think he is one of the most personable people you will ever meet, he has never shown the political maturity required to replace Gordon. Kevin also went along with the HST, in fact, strongly defending it. As Health Minister, he hasn’t  added a single bed for rehab and continues to allow the pill pushers and harm seduction fantasists free reign in Vancouver Coastal Health. Previously, he made several gaffes in a variety of Ministries by allowing the Premier to push an agenda that is wrong on so many fronts.

But to show you how far the mighty have fallen…Kevin does a Western-style ‘Beans and Jeans’ BBQ every year at the (gorgeous) Surrey ranch of Tory Senator Gerry St. Germain. Well, not this year. Apparently, they couldn’t sell enough tickets to even make it worthwhile. Now I’m sure this is not anywhere as much a reflection on Kevin as much as it is on Gord, but it gives you an idea of how far down the Liberals are: In the one of the safest center-right seats in the province, one of the highest profile Ministers cannot sell enough tickets to his own signature event to make it a go. It would be a kin to Colin Hansen not being able to sell out a tea party in Kerrisdale.

Frightening… more so, when you consider that the BC Liberals money is centralized (no constituency really has their own bank account) and that their fundraising cheques have all but died. At the Premier’s dinner in June, they had to give away over a dozen tables by cutting deals with long-time supporters that didn’t even want to attend.

Then again, the NDP numbers continue to remain surprising. After all the backlash against the irresponsible govt of Gordon Campbell, with him still at the helm, Carole James is entirely uninspiring and the NDP support, in places the will need to carry in spades, is soft. To add to their problems, they are divided into three distinct camps: The Vancouver dissidents fueled by American hippie inheritor money and extremist, radical policies that have created Vision Vancouver out of Hollyhock on Cortes Island; the bedrock union-loving hardcore NDPers and the James group of moderates. The Vision group are absolutely despised by the other two, so they’re out–never mind their fantasies. The hardcore group was the one that killed the province the last time, before brave Ujjal’s sacrifice fly, so that leaves Carole James and crew, that blew the last election with the most insanely milquetoast strategy of ‘sit ‘n wait’, I’ve ever seen. It wasn’t until the debate that Carole got going and by then she had already been defined by the Liberals as an uninspiring, bland meanderer.

And it worked.

So…where does that leave us as caring members of the province? In limbo..for now…but after the BC Conservatives change hands to better folks in the fall and the BC Liberals are remade, look for an alliance. The problem has always been Gordon Campbell and his blind protectors like BC Liberal President Mickey Patryluk et al. The whole party belongs to him and he’s destroyed it, but he’s been shielded from criticism by people that should know better.

It will be intersting to watch what happens in the months to come.

Stay tuned…..