For Whom the Bell Tolls…Not for Me or Thee!

But it sure looks as if it may toll for Michael Ignatieff.

With the Liberal leader in as certain, albeit slower, and more painful, a freefall as his predecessor, Stephane Dion, brave Michael is surely going into a sure season of discontent.  He’ll be spiking the eggnog with a little something stronger if this trend holds, even for another quarter.  The Liberals have no loyalty to anyone except the suits in their backroom, who either write the cheques or scour Bay Street for yet another willing dupe.  They will want to cannibalize their leader in no time flat.

There were four byelections held across the country last night:  One in New Westminister, that was taken, as I expected, by the NDP; two in Quebec, that were split between the Tories in rural Quebec, that they had no business winning, and the Bloc coasting to victory in Hochelaga; and finally in Nova Scotia, where the Tories collected a seat they have rarely lost since Confederation.

It was a very successful night for the Prime Minister and his crew, one which they MUST build upon or they can forget a majority in the next election. The gains in Quebec have to bee seen as significant and they have to be cultivated.  They won in polls they have never factored in previously and kept to simple messaging, nothing fancy.

Above all, they did two things in Quebec that they have NEVER previously done (had they, he’d be in his second majority).  Firstly, the Quebec win was accomplished with the harvesting of a good, reasonable, MODERATE, local candidate, and the campaign infrastructure was run like a national campaign (significant, too, was the crossover between Team Charest provincially and Team Harper–previously an unholy alliance…now firmly in detente).  Usually, the Tories ran Quebec campaigns based strictly on previous results, and with a few changes, rolled out similar, if not identical campaigns, time after time. Well, not last night.  Their GOTV (get out the vote) was superb and they had huge swaths of the riding identified well before the middle of the campaign. Secondly, it didn’t hurt that Stephen Harper has softened his messaging approach:  No more bare knuckles, in fact, he kept his fingers were they defined him best–on a keyboard.  If you think that the Prime Minster’s kinder, gentler approach hasn’t changed Tory fortunes in Quebec, then you haven’t seen the booming poll numbers for the Conservatives around the Island (of Montreal).  All those suburban ridings can be in play if he keeps his infamous penchant for blunt force trauma in check.  The Tories don’t need the elites and navel-gazers in Montreal.

In New Westminister, Fin Donnelly won with a 15 pt spread. He is popular locally and is the brother of SFU swim coach Liam Donnelly, who had his otherwise happy life infested by perennial nutbar, psycho-blogger, wannabe pundit and infernal pretender Rachel Marsden.  Donnelly did well to play off the current, high popularity of the NDP in this province.  Thanks to (madman) Gordon Campbell’s HST, which Donnelly made the number one issue, the NDP picked the seat, which I fully expected, contrary to local Tory predictions.  New West is still very blue collar and the sentiment against the provincial govt is so high, that they were able to tar the Tories, too.  People were angry and it showed.

As for Nova Scotia, the maths is simple enough:  Other than the Bill Casey foolishness of the previous some years, the Tories own this seat.  But they made great gains and I gather the expansion of the Tory base in the Maritimes helps, as does a renewed relationship between the Prime Minster and Nlfd Premier Danny Williams.

Three final observations:  The Liberals shrank in key areas of every one of the four by-election ridings.  This is very bad news for the party that (in the depths of delusion) considers itself Canada’s govt-in-waiting.  Particularly in New Westminister, where they had super-organizer Greg Wilson and former candidate Mary Pynenburg, front and center–their vote was dismal.  Surprising, for that riding and considering Wilson’s expertise (Pynenburg, on the other hand, has rarely seen an election she hasn’t helped sink)…  In Quebec, as I have stated many times before, the infrastructure after the Denis Coderre fracas of last month, confirmed my suspicions that Ignatieff’s Rosedale mafia are destroying the party, piece by piece in La Belle Provence.

And to be sure, the Bloc are not resonating and while they have pockets of stalwart support, generational change and false predictions of peril without a national identity’ have sunk them.   They must count on the battle axe brigade of Parizeau and Bouchard to spread the old canard about confederation–to the few that will know listen.

Finally:  The NDP are really not a national party, just a protest destination.  Outside of B.C., Winnipeg and northern Ontario, they don’t even matter.  Layton can rage against the dying of the light (with apologies to Dylan Thomas) all he wants to, it’s over for socialism in this country.  The NDP can never claim anything more than that they are the pace for left-wing Liberals and disaffected Greens to park their votes.

The times they are a changing…thankfully.

You can read various analyses here, here and here.

And you can certainly see how Mr. Ignatieff has been having a very bad couple of days, considering how the by-election results were bad enough.  Read it here.

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